While hurricane coverage often centers on Los Cabos, the storm most likely to make landfall in Baja California Sur is aimed at a very different kind of place: San Juanico, a small fishing and surf community in the municipality of Comondú, on the state’s remote Pacific coast.
Mexico’s National Water Commission, known as Conagua, forecasts that Hurricane Polo will make landfall in BCS on Monday, September 28. According to the Mexican Army, cited by Tribuna de México, the storm’s projected path would carry it across the peninsula near San Juanico before exiting into the Gulf of California through the ejido of San Nicolás, then continuing toward a second landfall in Sonora near Bahía de Lobos.
Why San Juanico Is the Focus
San Juanico is a quiet coastal town popular with surfers and known for a long right-hand point break, and it’s home to a mix of Mexican fishing families and a smaller community of foreign property owners drawn to its remote, undeveloped feel. Colonel Jesús Adrián Olmos Pérez, commander of the Third Combat Engineers Battalion based in La Paz, identified the town as the most likely point of impact and did not soften the warning.
“If the hurricane enters through San Juanico, the entire population [of Comondú] is at risk,” Olmos Pérez told Tribuna de México.
The colonel said Polo could reach the BCS coast as a category 2 or 3 storm, though that estimate remains subject to change, and urged residents to keep checking official sources for updates as the forecast evolves — a pattern this season’s storms have already shown can shift quickly.
Military Deploys 1,200 Troops Across Three Municipalities
As a first preventive step, the Mexican Army began deploying 1,200 personnel across BCS on Friday under Plan DN-III-E, the country’s standing framework for disaster response. Troops, alongside National Guard and Navy elements, are being split evenly among Los Cabos, La Paz and Comondú, with 400 assigned to each municipality.
Officials described the current phase as preventive: gathering data on exposed areas, updating hazard maps, identifying vulnerable points and coordinating with municipal, state and federal civil protection authorities. A second phase, focused on emergency response, would activate teams for security perimeters, rescue operations, heavy-equipment work and shelter management if the storm causes damage. The colonel added that ideally, at-risk residents should evacuate 48 hours before impact, since waiting longer can make evacuation more dangerous.
Mulegé Prepares Shelters and Clears Arroyos
Further up the coast, the municipality of Mulegé held its own civil protection council meeting this week, led by Mayor Edith Aguilar Villavicencio. According to BCS Noticias, officials reviewed water storage capacity at temporary shelters and agreed to continue clearing arroyos, or seasonal streambeds, that can flood quickly during heavy rain.
Aguilar Villavicencio said coordination between the three levels of government, emergency crews and residents is essential to protecting families in the municipality as the storm approaches.
What Residents and Property Owners Should Know
Classes have been suspended statewide for Monday, September 28, and Tuesday, September 29, as a precaution. For part-time residents and property owners along the Pacific coast near Loreto, San Juanico and Comondú, this is a good moment to confirm someone is checking on the property, secure loose items, and verify emergency contacts with neighbors or caretakers, since these communities have fewer resources than Los Cabos and can take longer to reach if roads flood.
Conditions and Polo’s track can still shift before Monday. Residents and visitors on the Pacific side of BCS are encouraged to monitor updates from Conagua, the National Civil Protection Coordination, and their local municipal civil protection office rather than relying on early projections.
