Hurricane Vance has weakened to a tropical storm, but meteorologists say it still carries enough punch to bring rain and rougher surf toward the Pacific side of Baja California Sur over the next few days.
As of Sunday evening, Vance was located about 455 kilometers (285 miles) south of Manzanillo, Colima, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. The storm had peaked as a Category 2 hurricane earlier in the week before losing strength.
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, known locally as the SMN, reported Saturday that Vance’s circulation was already producing heavy rain, gusty winds and elevated swell along the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, according to Tribuna de México. One related headline from the same outlet flagged that remnants of the system could track close enough to Cabo San Lucas to be felt locally, a track worth watching for anyone with outdoor plans on the Pacific side this week.
Where Vance Stands Now
Vance was moving to the northwest today and is expected to turn north in the coming days, according to the hurricane center. Forecasters say it should weaken further into a tropical depression by October 28, with the transition expected near Manzanillo, roughly 650 kilometers northeast of the southern Baja Sur tip.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 centimeters (2 to 4 inches) are possible along the mainland Pacific coast, with isolated spots seeing up to 17 centimeters, the hurricane center said. Those numbers apply to Colima, Nayarit, Sinaloa and parts of Michoacán, Jalisco and Durango, but the same moisture plume is what’s expected to push rain bands toward the Baja peninsula.
What It Means for Baja Sur’s Pacific Coast
For beach towns facing the open Pacific — Todos Santos chief among them — the practical takeaway is simple: expect periods of rain and a noticeably bigger, choppier swell over the next several days. Surfers and swimmers along exposed Pacific beaches should check conditions before heading out, since swell generated by a weakening tropical system can still produce strong rip currents even after the rain clears.
The Pacific has been unusually active this season, a pattern forecast earlier this year as El Niño conditions fueled storm after storm off Mexico’s west coast. Vance follows a string of named systems that have brushed the region this Pacific hurricane season.
What to Watch Next
Boaters and anyone with coastal plans should keep an eye on advisories from the local Capitanía de Puerto, Mexico’s port authority office, which can restrict small-craft traffic when swell and wind conditions warrant it. Protección Civil, the state’s civil protection agency, typically issues updates as systems like Vance move through, and those bulletins are the most reliable source for real-time closures or warnings.
As of today, forecasters had not indicated Vance would make landfall on the peninsula or require evacuations in Baja Sur. The bigger story for most residents and visitors will be a few wet, blustery days and rougher water on Pacific-facing beaches rather than any direct hit.
