Tropical Storm Simon has lost hurricane strength overnight, and the latest forecast track keeps the system farther from Los Cabos than earlier projections suggested. Small-craft port closures remain in effect in Los Cabos and La Paz as a precaution, but officials say the most recent data points to a system that is weakening, not strengthening, as it nears the weekend.
As of Thursday morning, Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua) reported Simon stationary roughly 430 kilometers (267 miles) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, with sustained winds of 95 km/h (59 mph) and gusts to 110 km/h. That’s a notable drop from the 150 km/h winds recorded less than 24 hours earlier, when Simon was still classified as a Category 1 hurricane. Conagua’s bulletin noted that because of this weakening, the system is not currently generating effects in Mexico.
Why Earlier Forecasts Looked Worse
Wednesday’s outlook had Simon’s center passing within about 160 kilometers (100 miles) of Cabo San Lucas as a tropical storm early Saturday, after what forecasters described as an erratic, stop-and-start path off the coast of Jalisco. That scenario is part of why the municipal government of Los Cabos activated permanent monitoring earlier this week. Mayor Christian Agúndez Gómez said the city is coordinating with state and federal civil protection agencies and keeping response protocols active while the storm’s path is confirmed.
Baja California Sur’s State Civil Protection Council is still forecasting accumulated rainfall of 25 to 50 millimeters across central and southern BCS through the weekend, with isolated totals up to 75 millimeters, plus elevated swell and dangerous rip currents along the coast. Those conditions are expected regardless of whether Simon’s center comes any closer, which is why the closure of ports to small vessels in Los Cabos and La Paz remains in place for now. The council was scheduled to meet again Thursday evening to review the latest satellite and model data and decide whether any additional measures are needed.
A Second System to Watch: Hurricane Trudy
Separately, Hurricane Trudy strengthened to Category 1 early Thursday and was located about 465 kilometers (289 miles) southwest of Acapulco, Guerrero. Conagua expects Trudy to intensify further and potentially reach Category 4 by the weekend, as it tracks northwest along Mexico’s Pacific coast past Guerrero and Oaxaca toward Michoacán and Colima. Current forecasts do not put Trudy on a path toward Baja California Sur, though officials continue to monitor both systems given how much Simon’s own track has shifted over the past few days.
What It Means for the Weekend
For now, the practical impact in Los Cabos and La Paz looks like scattered rain, cloudy skies and rough surf rather than a direct hit. Small boats stay docked until the port closure lifts, swimmers should avoid areas with strong currents, and anyone with weekend plans on the water should check with the Capitanía de Puerto before heading out. Updates typically come after each Civil Protection Council session, so another revision to Simon’s track is possible before Saturday.
