Residents of Baja California Sur should expect power outages this summer as extreme heat drives up electricity demand, according to Jaqueline Valenzuela, executive director of the Center for Renewable Energies and Environmental Quality (CERCA).
Valenzuela said outages have already begun in early June when temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). With summer officially starting on June 21, forecasts call for even higher temperatures, increasing the strain on the state’s electrical system.
“As temperatures rise, electricity demand will soar, and the operator may have to implement necessary power cuts,” Valenzuela said.
BCS has an installed electricity generation capacity of 1,100 megawatts which exceeds peak demand of approximately 750 MW. However, only about 65% of that capacity is currently operational, creating a significant shortfall during periods of high consumption.
“We need more capacity and more generators to ensure energy is available when demand peaks,” Valenzuela said.
The state is already facing infrastructure challenges. Baja California Sur ranks among the states with the lowest levels of satisfaction regarding water service, and residents continue to report problems with low water pressure.
Long-Term Energy Projects Face Delays
Valenzuela noted that 15 electricity-generation projects are currently planned or underway across the Baja California Peninsula. However, each project requires at least three years to complete.
She said the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) recently announced 11 projects under a mixed public-private model that would add 380 MW of generating capacity. Combined with another 500 MW in projects planned directly by the CFE, the total new capacity would reach 880 MW. However, these projects are not expected to begin operating until 2029.
Despite the unprecedented scale of the development portfolio, Valenzuela said additional long-term planning is needed because of the region’s rapid population and economic growth.
Rapid Growth Drives Unsustainable Demand
“In the last 15 years, Baja California Sur has experienced population growth higher than any other state in Mexico,” she said. “This has resulted in significant increases in electricity demand in both the Baja California Sur and Mulegé systems, with growth rates reaching double digits.”
Valenzuela added that meeting future demand would require increasing electricity generation capacity by approximately 10% annually, a pace she described as unsustainable given the lengthy construction timelines for new energy projects.
As a result, officials expect blackouts and service interruptions this summer as soaring temperatures drive greater use of air-conditioning systems by households and businesses across the state.
