Tropical Depression Vance is expected to pass within about 150 kilometers (93 miles) of Cabo San Lucas early Thursday morning, keeping southern Baja California Sur under threat of heavy rain just one day after flooding shut down schools and swept vehicles through city streets.
The system weakened from a tropical storm as it tracked north-northwest off the Pacific coast, but Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, known as SMN, says its circulation will keep delivering heavy rain to the region through at least Thursday night.
Why Schools Closed Wednesday
Tuesday night’s storm dumped roughly 60 millimeters (about 2.4 inches) of rain on Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, according to the state’s Consejo Estatal de Protección Civil (State Civil Protection Council). The council suspended classes at every public and private school in both cities on Wednesday, covering all grade levels and both morning and afternoon shifts, as a precaution for students and staff.
Where Vance Stands Now
As of Wednesday evening, Vance sat about 265 kilometers (165 miles) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas with sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and gusts to 85 km/h (53 mph), according to HOY BCS. Forecasters expect the system to close to within 150 kilometers of the resort city by Thursday morning, though by then it should lose its tropical characteristics and weaken into a postropical or remnant system.
Even without a direct hit, Vance’s circulation is forecast to drop another 75 to 150 millimeters (3 to 6 inches) of rain across southern Baja California Sur, according to Tribuna de México, raising the risk of flash flooding, swollen arroyos and landslides in low-lying areas. The system was first tracked as Tropical Storm Vance several days ago, and it adds to a stretch of active weather that has kept Baja California Sur on alert this fall, following the earlier passage of Hurricane Polo.
Coastal waters will see wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h (25 to 37 mph) and swells of 1.5 to 2.5 meters (5 to 8 feet), conditions the SMN says warrant extra caution for anyone heading out on the water this week.
What Crews Are Doing on the Ground
Los Cabos’ water utility, OOMSAPAS, says its crews are working around the clock to protect wells, aqueducts and pump stations while the rain continues. The utility reported no major damage to its main water lines, though workers repaired a leak near the municipal market in downtown San José del Cabo, according to the municipality of Los Cabos. Mayor Christian Agúndez has ordered operational crews to maintain round-the-clock monitoring across the municipality.
What to Expect Over the Next 48 Hours
State Civil Protection officials are urging residents to avoid unnecessary trips, stay away from flooded roads, and never attempt to cross streams or arroyos on foot or by vehicle — the same hazard that put drivers in danger Tuesday night. Vance’s remnants are expected to keep moving north-northwest, reaching waters off Sinaloa by early Friday morning with winds dropping to around 45 km/h (28 mph).
Civil Protection officials say further school suspensions will depend on overnight rainfall totals and will be announced as conditions warrant. Residents can watch for alerts through Los Cabos Protección Civil channels or municipal social media accounts as the system clears the area.
