La Paz residents and waterfront business owners have two dates to circle on the calendar this month. Forecasters say a combination of El Niño conditions, unusually warm ocean temperatures and specific lunar phases could push seawater onto the Malecón and other low-lying areas during the nights and mornings of Nov. 8-9 and Nov. 24-25.
The alert, reported by Colectivo Pericú, comes just weeks after flooding already reached sidewalks and streets near the coast during the last days of October, including the access road to the El Comitán beaches.
What’s Driving the Risk
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed an intensifying El Niño pattern in its Oct. 8 update, a cycle that warms the Pacific and can raise regional sea levels. Warmer water also expands in volume, adding to the effect.
According to the Climate Bulletin of Baja California Sur, published by the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE), absolute sea level in August and September 2026 reached its highest point in 33 years of record-keeping. La Paz Bay specifically shows a long-term rise of about 8.7 centimeters (roughly 3.4 inches) over those 33 years of record-keeping.
None of that alone causes flooding. The trigger is what happens when those elevated baseline sea levels combine with the biggest tidal swings of the month — known as spring tides or king tides.
The Two Dates to Watch
November brings a new moon on the 9th and a full moon on the 24th, followed by lunar perigee — when the moon is at its closest approach to Earth — on the 25th. Both configurations produce stronger-than-normal tidal ranges.
Mexico’s Secretaría de Marina (SEMAR), the navy agency that publishes official tide tables, forecasts a high tide of 1.33 meters (4.4 feet) in La Paz at 8:19 a.m. on Nov. 9. The second window is expected to be higher: 1.49 meters (4.9 feet) at 8:29 a.m. on Nov. 25.
Those numbers are astronomical predictions, not guarantees. Actual water levels depend on real-time conditions like wind, swell and barometric pressure, and any reading above 2.10 meters would need instrumental confirmation rather than assumption from the tide charts alone.
Where to Keep an Eye Out in La Paz
The areas flagged for preventive attention include the Malecón (Paseo Álvaro Obregón), El Manglito, El Esterito, El Conchalito and other low ground near the bay. Businesses and residents along the Malecón who dealt with October’s water intrusion may want to have sandbags or barriers ready ahead of both windows.
Boat owners should also factor in stronger currents around channels and marina access points during the tidal swings. Over on the tourist corridor, El Coromuel beach could see its sand strip temporarily shrink during peak high tide.
The timing echoes concerns raised after this fall’s flash flood rescue in the city, a reminder that La Paz’s drainage and coastal infrastructure can struggle when water levels rise quickly.
San José del Cabo Also on Alert
Los Cabos isn’t off the hook either. SEMAR’s tables show a high tide of 1.46 meters (4.8 feet) in San José del Cabo at 7:48 a.m. on Nov. 9, climbing to 1.65 meters (5.4 feet) at 8:02 a.m. on Nov. 25.
The sandbar at the Estero de San José del Cabo, La Playita, Puerto Los Cabos and stretches of the tourist corridor are the areas local authorities are watching most closely, since wave energy combined with high tides can push seawater over the barrier into the lagoon.
What Residents Should Do
Whether the water actually reaches the streets depends on real ocean conditions on those specific mornings, not just the astronomical forecast. Still, waterfront business owners in both cities may want to check drainage, secure loose items and watch local weather updates in the days leading up to Nov. 8-9 and Nov. 24-25.
Protección Civil offices in La Paz and Los Cabos typically issue updated advisories as the dates approach if ocean conditions point to higher-than-predicted flooding.
Source Note: This story is based on original reporting by Colectivo Pericú. It has been independently rewritten and adapted by the Gringo Gazette for our English-speaking readers, with additional context where appropriate.
