BY THE PROTECT TODOS SANTOS TEAM
We have been analyzing the local real estate market to better understand what has happened with lot, home and condo sales and prices over the past 5 years and wanted to share that information with you. All the information comes from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) published quarterly reports for Baja Sur.
Lot Sales
The major growth areas of Baja California Sur now appear to be Todos Santos where 28% of the lot sales and the East Cape where 23% of lot sales have occurred in Baja California Sur over the past 5 years. Todos Santos and the East Cape currently have only 2% of the region’s population and no water available for any additional residents. Unfortunately, Todos Santos and the East Cape are the areas the government plans to grow since Cabo and La Paz are already overdeveloped.
Home Values Skyrocket but Have Recently Fell
As the chart below indicates, home prices in the Todos Santos Region more than tripled from an average of $341,860 in 2019 to $1,046,691 in 2022. Since then, prices have fallen 21% to $821,324 during the first two quarters of 2024. The cause of the increase from 2019 to 2022 was due to Todos Santos being discovered and the population increasing due to the ability for people to work remotely. The cause for the drop in the past 2 years is the softening of the market. The report indicates homes are staying on the 200 to 300 days before selling.
Condo Values Crater
The drop in condo values, mostly in Cerritos this year has been dramatic. Condo prices soared, growing from an average price of $422,222 in 2019 to $887,500 in 2023. However, they have recently dropped to about 1/3rd of their peak price to $296,875 in the first half of 2024.
The cause of the drop is hard to know but it could be due to market saturation as developers overbuilt anticipating the $900,000 values would hold up even as they built one after another in an area without a water distribution or sewage system and very poor roads. And according to real estate agents, people would prefer a home to a condo.
Right now, there are about 21 new condo projects either under construction or trying to get a permit in Cerritos and there are several problems with Cerritos condos purchasers should be aware of.
First, most of Cerritos is in the RT zone which restricts Cerritos to only single-family homes meaning all that were built are illegal. Even the new proposed Urban Development Plan (PDU) does not allow condos to be built in Cerritos.
Second, many condo projects being marketed are not even built yet. The real estate listing photos are simply renderings and proper titles for each unit take years to get and can only be applied for after 80% of the construction is completed. As a result, the purchaser's deposit and progress payments may be lost if the project is not completed due to slow sales and falling values that are used to fund construction.
Please Take Our Resident Survey So We Can Identify Problem Areas
The Todos Santos region has been facing water and power shortages affecting residents and businesses due to the massive growth we have experienced over the past several years.
The Power Problem - Electricity has become a problem because Baja Sur relies on a single electrical power plant in La Paz and the outdated distribution system serving the Todos Santos Region cannot meet the load required to power all the new homes. And there are no plans or funding available for additional capacity.
The power problem mostly happens during the hottest months when demand is at its peak and fans and air conditioners stop running, a dangerous situation for seniors. It is also causing residents to have to replace refrigerators, water pumps, washing machines, and air conditioners due to them not receiving adequate voltage from the distribution system resulting in them overheating.
The Water Problem- Due to recent growth and without additional water lines being added or increased in size, the water distribution system has become so overtaxed that OMSAPA has to reduce the amount of time water is provided to areas to create the pressure needed to serve other areas. As a result, the amount of water being delivered has fallen dramatically for some areas. We hope our survey will help us understand where that is happening.
OMSAPA has also stopped issuing new water contracts because they are exceeding their Todos Santos Aquifer concessions. As a result, new homes will have to have their water trucked in—an expensive (10 times the cost of OMSAPA water), inconvenient, polluting and road-damaging alternative.
Help Us Identify Problem Areas by Taking Our Survey
To map out the areas that are experiencing the most severe water and power shortages, we’ve developed a resident survey. Our plan is to meet with OMSAPA and CFE and see what, if anything, can be done to alleviate the problems facing residents.
Some questions you may not be able to answer, if so please feel free to skip them.
Here is a link to the survey:
We Need Your Help
As you can see, we have a lot of work to do and many challenges ahead, some with significant costs. So we hope you will support our efforts by making a one-time or monthly tax-deductible donation to help us tackle our problems and create a brighter future for Todos Santos. To donate, simply go to our website at www.ProtectTodosSantos.org
Thank you for your continued support – The Team at Protect Todos Santos ,
