We are becoming less and less.
Mexico faces a significant demographic challenge. According to the National Population Council (CONAPO), the country will reach its population peak in 2053 with 147 million people, after which the number of inhabitants is expected to decline.
Marking the 50th anniversary of CONAPO’s creation, Rosa Rodríguez, Secretary of the Interior and president of the council, highlighted that one of the key public policy challenges for the country is the increasing number of older adults. This demographic has grown from 7.4 percent of the population in 2000 to 12.4 percent in 2024.
The annual growth rate of 0.8 percent reflects a decades-long trend of declining birth rates, which currently stand at an average of 1.6 children per woman, below the replacement rate. Additionally, single-person households have increased from 4 to 14 percent over the past 30 years, a trend that is expected to continue.
CONAPO’s projections indicate that by 2050, individuals aged 60 and over will constitute 24.1 percent of the population, nearly tripling by 2070 compared to 2024. This demographic shift poses challenges to the demographic dividend, impacting policies across sectors, including education, which will need to shift focus from preschools to elder care facilities.
Rodríguez Velázquez stressed that this new demographic scenario demands innovative public population policies to ensure the provision of food, education, health, and infrastructure. She credited effective demographic policy, initiated with CONAPO’s establishment in 1974, with enabling Mexico to maintain a current population of 132.3 million, rather than exceeding 150 million as projected in the 1970s.
Among the successes of CONAPO’s demographic policy—supported by 17 federal agencies, including the Secretariats of Health and Education, as well as the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and research institutions like El Colegio de México—is the increase in life expectancy from 60 years in the early 70s to 75.5 years for men and 78.9 years for women by 2024.
One notable initiative that has helped boost life expectancy in Mexico, according to Rodríguez, is the pension for older adults, which provides them with financial support to afford food and necessary medications. These public policies have played a crucial role in shaping the demographic landscape of Mexico.
