BY SARA AGUILAR
The end of the megaproject cycle and the oil sector’s weakness contributed to a 1.3% decline in national manufacturing in 2025.
Throughout 2025, businesses linked to oil activity in Campeche faced payment delays from Pemex due to the sector’s deterioration.
Baja California Sur, Hidalgo, and Nayarit led industrial growth among Mexican states, even as industrial activity fell 1.3% nationally, according to data from the INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography).
Baja California Sur Outpaces National Decline
Baja California Sur, with 9.3% growth, grew faster than the other states “due to strong activity in construction, mainly in Los Cabos and La Paz,” where tourism infrastructure stands out; electricity generation was a highlight last year,” explained economic analyst Kristobal Meléndez.
Hidalgo ranked second nationally with 7.1% growth “due to a considerable recovery in manufacturing, particularly the automotive industry, and its geographic location, attracting nearshoring investment,” he added.
Nayarit followed with a 6.7% annual increase, Tamaulipas with 6.2%, and Colima with 5.5%, the latter also driven by infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the Port of Manzanillo.
In the case of Tamaulipas, “it has presented a more stable profile due to its mining and oil activities. Its proximity to the United States also allows it to attract consistent investment.”
Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Hidalgo, and Jalisco contributed most positively to the performance of national economic activity, which “suggests that the greatest support came from territories with a larger industrial base and better connections to the production chains in the north and west of the country,” explained economic analyst Héctor Magaña.
The environment reflects the relocation of production, but “concentrated in already established industrial corridors, especially those most connected to exports, manufacturing, and logistics.”
Border States and Oil Regions Face Significant Contractions
Border states and those with a manufacturing tradition experienced contractions in their industrial activity, such as Coahuila with a 4.3% drop, Chihuahua with 2.1%, and Baja California with 1.0%.
The uncertainty generated by the United States’ 2025 tariff policies created a climate of caution in some sectors and slowed orders and investment. Although “in others it opened up space for Mexican producers to gain market share against competitors from other countries,” it also accentuated the differences between states. “The country ended the year with less industrial growth, less momentum in civil engineering projects, and a more cautious investment environment,” Magaña added.
Quintana Roo experienced a contraction of 46.5%, Campeche of 17.1%, and Tabasco of 9.8%, a behavior that points to the “exhaustion of the impetus given by the large works under construction; on the other hand, the weakness of the oil and energy sector continues to have a determining weight in Campeche and Tabasco.”
It marked a difficult year, with industrial output experiencing its worst performance since 2020.
